Stocks·2 stocks·6 checkpoints
My calls, checked
In my videos I lay out the bull case, the bear case, and the specific things I'd watch, usually with a date. This page holds me to it: when each date comes, I mark whether it happened. Every point links to the moment I said it.
0 happened, 0 didn't, 6 still open. The next check is Feb 28, 2027. Analyst targets have their own scorecard.
Part of Tesla's price may be a raffle ticket on a SpaceX merger. If you like Tesla on its own, you still have to value the car without the ticket.
The bull case
- At about $344, my toy math says you're paying close to nothing for the merger ticket, while a prediction market still had an announcement at about 55%. 8:57
- Congress can investigate and delay, but it doesn't get a yes or no vote on a merger like this. 5:29
The bear case
- Even after the drop, it's more than 370 times its last 12 months of earnings. 11:54
- Operating income fell to about $718 million last quarter, and China-made sales fell about 29% from September. 9:47
- China is about 20% of Tesla's revenue, and combining with a US defense contractor could cause problems there. A future administration could even take another look at a finished deal. 6:20
What I said to watch
Aurora's driverless trucks are real and already hauling paid freight in Texas. The question is whether it scales on schedule without selling a pile of new shares.
The bull case
- It got there first: more than 500,000 driverless miles, with 100% on-time delivery, by Aurora's own count. 8:17
- Management talks about tens of thousands of trucks and roughly $5 billion a year in revenue by 2030, with software-style margins on the driver business. 8:44
The bear case
- It keeps missing its own calendar: the 200-truck goal slid to February, and 2026 revenue guidance was cut by about 40%. 9:11
- It lost roughly $78 for every $1 of revenue last quarter, and rivals like Kodiak are running trucks in Texas too. 9:11
- About a year of cash at the current burn, by my napkin math, so more share sales are likely. 7:23
What I said to watch
A checkpoint is something I said to watch, not a prediction that it will happen, and none of this is a reason to buy or sell. Full disclaimer.
